I was disenheartened when the Nanos poll came out on December 30th and pegged our current level of support at 4%. Yes, it’s true, since then, the whole prorogation issue has hit, and Elizabeth May has received some "favorable" media coverage as a result (although highlighting the need for the public to "kick and scream" was a questionable approach in my mind...nonetheless, coverage has been positive).

It’s not that I think we’ve jumped from 4% to 13.4% in the past week. We always poll higher with EKOS than with Nanos. As one commenter has already pointed out, Nanos seems to be a little closer to the mark in terms results on election day. 
 
What’s important with polls is the trend line over time. And over time we’ve been fairly flat, which is problematic. Maybe, though, this latest blip will be the start of a new trend, which situates our Party in a better position. I’m cautiously optimistic that it might be so, especially in the short term, as there has been increasing positive coverage about our Leader in the last little while (if uncritical, and not specifically focussed on the Party itself). I think that the Party, though, has done a credible job of shifting the public perception around to Elizabeth May’s name being equated with the Green Party, so positive coverage for May is good for the Party. This may be an issue down the road, but right now as part of the branding effort, I think it’s starting to pay off. It’s unfortunate that we lost most of 2009 to get here, but let’s move ahead. 
 
Of more interest is what the latest polls and what future polls might start to reveal about the other Parties, and that’s their own lack of traction. If we can continue to make slight gains, especially in key regions such as B.C., than we could be even more advantaged. Some pollsters are predicting a period of decline now for the Conservatives. Ideally, we have some ground to seize here. Let’s see if we can do it. 
 
I personally expect that the Liberals will be the biggest winners should the Conservatives numbers continue to drop, but watch out for the NDP, especially in their key regions (Ontario and B.C.). Ultimately, I believe that the NDP has positioned themselves very strategically to make inroads in the next election, given the failing of the Liberals to re-invent themselves under Ignatieff and the issues associated with Harper.
 
But don’t expect anything major to happen to the polls barring some significant event happening. And let’s all keep in mind that polls are but only one indicator of the health of a political party. So while I’m pleased and slightly optimistic with these latest results, for the reasons provided by Dave, my enthusiasm, while present, remains tempered. 
 
Good blog, Dave. Thanks for writing about this.
 
"Sudbury" Steve May

It's the same word of caution I give everytime there is a favorable poll for the Greens... be careful about reading too much into it.  We've seen polling numbers last year where the GPC was the highest polling party in Quebec and during the byelections, we were out-polling the NDP yet they crushed us by a 5-1 ratio in actual votes gained.
 
Nik Nanos demonstrated back at the 2006 BGM that the Greens were the worst at taking polled support and converting it into actual support in the voting booth of all the parties.  Despite a increase from 2006 to 2008 in actual support, we were far from what our polling numbers suggested confirming Mr. Nanos' research yet again.
 
Mark @ RoG

If these poll results were a) bang on, and b) proportionally represented in seats, then the Conservatives would no-longer be able to get a majority vote out just by getting the NDP to follow suit.  They'd only have 49.1% of the vote, if the all of the Liberal and Green and Bloc representation voted against them.
Now, that's a lot of "if"s and a few more "probably not"s, but it's still an interesting thought to entertain.