Whenever I bring up a poll result that is particularly positive those who champion the idea that the GPC is in an awful state bring up the fact that it's just one poll and we shouldn't read too much in to it. You know what? They're right, one poll doesn't really mean much. Of course they are guilty of it too. They post polls with more negative results with the same glee I post polls with more positive results.
Going through a detailed history of polls from every pollster is just not something I have the time to do. Instead I have gone through the last 10 EKOS polls and while you might question the absolute number (since it comes from only one source) the changes are meaningful.
The first thing to realize is that the 11.0% we received in the poll released on October 22nd 2009 is actually a smaller number than the 11.0% we received on January 28th, 2010. The reason for this is that the 11% in January represents firmer Green Party support.
When going through the polls I noticed that in the Jaunary 14th report (their second poll of 2010) a category was added for voter intention. Before the Jan 14th poll there was no 'other' option. I have emailed EKOS and they have confirmed that this is a difference in polling and not simply a difference in reporting.
| Option | Jan 7th | Jan 14th | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Green | 13.4% | 11.9% | -1.5% |
| Other | 0.0% | 2.3% | +2.3% |
| Total | 13.4% | 14.2% | +0.8% |
Obviously not every person who chose 'other' previously chose 'Green' however the common line used against growth in the polls for theGPC is that we are where people park their vote. Between elections we are their 'other'. However they now have an actual 'other'. Using this information I have come up with a little bit of rough analysis.
| Date | GPC | Oth | GPC + Oth | Oth in GPC | GPC - Oth in GPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct-22 | 11.00 | 0.00 | 11.00 | 2.33 | 8.67 |
| Oct-29 | 9.90 | 0.00 | 9.90 | 2.33 | 7.57 |
| Nov-05 | 10.00 | 0.00 | 10.00 | 2.33 | 7.67 |
| Nov-26 | 11.40 | 0.00 | 11.40 | 2.33 | 9.07 |
| Dec-10 | 11.30 | 0.00 | 11.30 | 2.33 | 8.97 |
| Dec-17 | 11.20 | 0.00 | 11.20 | 2.33 | 8.87 |
| Jan-07 | 13.40 | 0.00 | 13.40 | 2.33 | 11.07 |
| Jan-14 | 11.90 | 2.30 | 14.20 | 2.33 | 11.90 |
| Jan-21 | 11.50 | 2.10 | 13.60 | 2.33 | 11.50 |
| Jan-28 | 11.00 | 2.60 | 13.60 | 2.33 | 11.00 |
| Avg | Avg | 2009 Avg | 2010 Avg | Diff | |
| 11.26 | 2.33 | 8.47 | 11.37 | +2.90 |
Of course again I want to stress that I know that not every 'other' was once a 'Green' but I still think that the conclusion is meaningful. Our support is a couple points higher in the beginning of 2010 than in the last quarter of 2009. This change can be attributed to many things but I think prorogation loosened things up and we were able to capitalize on Elizabeth's latest book, Loosing Confidence.
As for seat projections EKOS projected one seat for the Greens in Ontario using their model. Using other models various sources have projected us with zero seats and still others projected us winning one seat in BC.
Well first I think this confirms that we will not win easily anywhere. If we are to pick up a seat in Ontario and/or BC we are really going to have to work for it. Second I think it shows that it is possible for us to win two seats in the next election, a goal we should be pushing for. Finally this shows that our support is solidifying which should result in a higher percentage of support nationally in the next election so if your local campaign has not yet developed a 'get-out-the-vote' strategy you should really get on it.
| EKOS Reports (PDF) | |
|---|---|
| 2009 | 2010 |
| Oct 22nd | Jan 07th |
| Oct 29th | Jan 14th |
| Nov 05th | Jan 21st |
| Nov 26th | Jan 28th |
| Dec 10th | |
| Dec 17th | |



The Elizabeth May Virus Post
For those who missed it the first time. Seems pretty harmless to me.
The metaphor is awkward, but we are all so obsessed with H1N1 these days.. the metaphor of Elizabeth as a virus infected my mind. All activists and writers are inherently viruses - they want to infect the population with a New Idea. 2006 the GPC was a rising party (4% in the polls, up from 1% in the last election.) But the party was immature, and had no antibodies to demagogues.
An astute political operator saw the potential and ran for leader. She received 2,000 votes compared to her opponent who received 1,000 votes. Small numbers for a major political party. It's easy to take over small political parties.
Since then, the virus has completely infected the party. There is no paid position in the party - no matter why minor - which has not been been infected. All paid staff owe their employment to Elizabeth. Or, at least their continued employment..
It will take a lot of work to rid the Green Party of this virus. The party may not survive the surgery, frankly. But we will try in 2010
"All paid staff owe their
"All paid staff owe their employment to Elizabeth. Or, at least their continued employment.. "
That's an outright lie.
~ Dave Bagler
Your hypothesis about the
Your hypothesis about the effect of adding Other to the question doesn't really have any basis.
Despite the long term trend stability of EKOS polls, there is a lot of variability from poll to poll... wandering in a month 2 or 3%. So its going to be many months of having 'Other' in the EKOS polls before you can make even tentative conclusions about that category possibly drawing away from the Green poll result.
There are also lots of reasons to expect that people who answer 'Other' are quite unrelated to those who answer Green. The fact EKOS started doing this is interesting, but it might have just about any implications. It may only mean that they get more respondents considered valid, and/or that they are mostly people who would call themselevs undecided.
There is definitely no validity to you saying that the 2008 pre-election polling of 11% would really have been 9% if 'Other' had been included in the surveys then. If for no other reason [and there are others] because having another possible answer changes the dynamic of responses.
Here is another example of conclusions that cannot be drawn from the numbers. Nanos has the same consistency for GPC numbers... at about half the EKOS GPC numbers. And Nanos numbers are far closer to the actual ballot box results.
What is most obviously different about Nanos is that he does not prompt with the party name. Not surprisingly, that alone substantially knocks down the number of 'Green' responses.
Intuitively that makes sense... since its known that a lot of the people who express a Green preference don't vote. So its likely they also are weakly committed to watching politics at all. So that without prompting they won't think of the GPC.
But thats just speculation. What we know is that without prompting of party name, the GPC responses are far lower. and that the Nanos results are the closest to the actual results.
Does that make the Nanos results the most accurate? Not really. Their surveys may be depressing the Green responses for entirely different reasons than what causes that general drop in Green polling to Green actual votes.
NANOS and other will one day be given the lie
Hi Ken S.
I`ve blogged about the impact of differing methodology on poll results, and I think that there is an interesting side bar to highlight. Pollsters market their accuracy, and the most widely watched polls they do are on voting intentions. When contrasted to actual electoral outcomes, if they are not close in all respects, then they appear to be `bad`pollsters. For this reason more than any, I believe that they have done their best to model the discrepency between GPC Intentions, and actual outcomes on eday. There`s lots of ways to do it, but in practice, that means adjusting for the age brackets, by surpressing turnout in their forward looking projections. The problem with this is that, while it will be accurate if the factors that effect turnout don`t change, one day the GPC will grow up, and start doing effective GOTV in more and more of the country. If that happens suddenly, then every single predictive pollster in the country will be caught with his or her pants down. I will guess that a vigorous GOTV will add 2%-3% to the actual vote, and change the shape of Parliament in perhaps a hundred marginal ridings across the country. That`s why while I lend credence to the polss in varying degrees, I still scoff at them as an attempt to drive backwards using the rear view mirror. It`s fine for as long as it`s fine, but it`s only a matter of time until you miss that sharp curve.
Ken, you need to read the
Ken, you need to read the whole blog, you would see that I fully admit that this was very rough analysis.
However are you denying that the Greens are not often a between election parking lot for many protest votes?
Let me remind you that I don't actually talk about 2008 in the post. Are you reading October and getting confused? There is an October every year and the October I discuss is October 2009. Last time I checked there wasn't an election during October of 2009.
~ Dave Bagler
Election Numbers
Just to be clear, while Nanos' number may have been closest to the actual Green Party result in the 2008 election, EKOS had the best overall performance of any of the tracking polls, measured by the final result for all the parties, and also had the closest to actual seat projection of any published.
Paul Adams
EKOS
Yes, I agree: Other is Other
Sorry, Dave, but I have to agree with the Anonymous poster: it's not appropriate to add Green and Other together, even for a fraction of the Other. Given that people polled were offered to choose from either Green or Other, those choosing Other would not have done so based on their intention to vote Green.
Further, while I can't state this categorically, most often when these polls are conducted, the pollster will run through the list of options. "Other" or "No Opinion" almost always is at the end of such a list, so those choosing Other would likely have already heard "Green Party" as an option first...and they still chose Other.
I was optimistic earlier in the month that maybe we were on an upswing from December, but with the latest weekly polls, we seem to be heading downward, back to where we were last fall. The good news, though, remains the projected seat, even if it moves around the country!
Steve I contacted EKOS there
Steve I contacted EKOS there was no 'other' option until recently.
~ Dave Bagler
Shamelessly negative
Shamelessly negative comment:
Another way to look at is that the GPC non election campaign polling has been pretty stable since well before the 2008 election. Which means that you have a pretty stable cohort who at least seriously consider voting Green.
For 2 years before the 2008 election May was much in the media, especially for the year plus before the election. And you went down from the polling levels to 6.8%. And that was with the attention of the debates and the public sympathy from being nearly excluded from them.
Now Elizabeth May is invisible to anyone but really dedicated political junkies. The media has lost interest in her. And she seems disinclined to do anyting about it.
Nor will there be anywhere close to the same amount of money for putting into the next national campaign. [?Plus less revenue sharing and transfers to target campaigns?]
So how much of a drop from that polling plateau might be expected in the next election?
Re: Shameless
But the lack of other accounts for at least part of the drop from 9 to 7. Using my google news alert for Elizabeth May I can tell you that there seem to be just as many GPC stories in 2010 as ther was in 2009 or outside the election in 2008. By the way when Rick Mercer comments on the national media losing interest in her, the national media hasn't actually lost interest in her.
She seems disinclinded to do anything about it? Ken with your decades of political experience can you elaborate on this? What strategies could she implement? Could it be that she is busy in SGI doing what people accused her of not doing in CN?
If you were actually involved in the GPC you might have heard that our last quarter was a record quarter for fundraising we also have been working to develop some new local fundraising tools.
~ Dave Bagler
There is no absolutely no way
There is no absolutely no way that May is getting now remotely near the attention she got in 2007 and 2008.
And what could she do about getting more attention?
Its all about application. If she was applying herself there would have been 2 months of prep before Copenhagen so she could ride that. You have sufficient staffing to have done that. Can you think of a better thing for the coomunications Director to have been doing? [And I hope for your own sake that given the results, that position got offed in the cutbacks. A Communications person is essential to get the leader in circulatiob, but if they aren't doing anything and/or May isn't willing to apply herself, who needs the expense.]
Bottom line: you get in retuens what you proprize and apply yourself to.
We had lots of Copenhagen
We had lots of Copenhagen press.
We had lots of progrogation press. Still not as much as the press we had for Copenhagen which was second only to the 2008 election.
When you say she isn't in the media and use Copenhagen as an example are you not considering national news papers, radio and television to be media?
~ Dave Bagler
She got a few media hits
She got a few media hits during Copenhagen. That was guaranteed to happen.
But if she had the cachet she had in 2007/2008, or did the extensive legwork required, she would have been able to sustain media attention around climate change for quite a while.
Think about it. In 2007/2008 she got in the media on a regular basis- no matter what was or was not happening at the time.
Copenhagen was an event with a huge profile and absolutely taylor made for her, and all she gets is a few stories for the week the media are looking for someone who is in Copenhagen to get some quotes from.
Lack of media interest in Vision Green 2010
Dave, we released Vision Green 2010 at the beginning of the week. Elizabeth May did Shakespeare as well. There was very little coverage of either, hardly any on Vision Green 2010 at all, which was disappointing.
Has the Party even notified the Membership about this incredibly important document? I don't think so. What's going on? Oh ya...we seem to be down a few key staff.
Steve you're involved with
Steve you're involved with your local EDA right? Did you guys submit a letter to the editor or a press release about the announcement?
Why is everything the responsibility of the central office. Shouldn't EDA's be taking it upon themselves to get local exposure?
~ Dave Bagler
Cop Out
Dave, you've created a straw-man arguement. So, it's my fault that we're not getting any press on the release of Vision Green 2010 because I've not written a letter to the editor or issued a press release? Please, give me a break. While I concur that those are good things which I could be doing to promote Vision Green 2010, I'm not frigging responsible for trying to get national media attention to our biggest policy release since our Election Platform.
Further, Vision Green 2010 is huge. It would have been a smart strategy to provide nominated candidates and EDA's with a list of talking points around which we could structure our individual press releases and/or letters to the editor. I never received those either, along with my lack of notice that Vision Green 2010 was released.
Regardless of whatever actions I've taken or not taken, the roll out of this policy document was been abysmal.
Abysmal? I was at work but
Abysmal? I was at work but cbcnews.ca provided a live feed of it and we it was mentioned in various news papers.
Abysmal? We've come along way if a GPC policy document is news.
You guys talk like we were in power in 2005.
~ Dave Bagler
Links to these 'mentions in
Links to these 'mentions in various newspapers'?
And I don't know what a cbc live feed is in practice. Who would see it? Is one any more likely to see it than a GPC news release?
Do any of those media 'mentions' refer to events in the 'cross country launch' the release referrs to?
http://lmgtfy.com/?q=%22Eliza
http://lmgtfy.com/?q=%22Elizabeth+May%22+%2B+Copenhagen
Also the live feed was streaming video of the press conference in Ottawa. CBCNN has developed a online feed system similar to CNN.
~ Dave Bagler
Your link aptly demonstrates
Your link aptly demonstrates my point: some significant media hits DURING Copenhagen. And the very next week- May is back off the radar, even before Copenhagen is off it.
My local group got attention got a lot of media attention for weeks before Copenhagen, and continuing after. Thats because we didn't wait for what would drop into our laps- we did prep work for months.... while we were engaged with more immediate campaigns and priorities. In other words, we had our equivalents to what the SGI campaign is for May and the GPC; but knowing how important being ready for Copenhagen was, we did that too.
Ditto for that press conference releasing the Green Vision. Anyone can hold a press conference- thats a bare minimum. But if you don't do the groundwork as well, you'll get little or nothing out of it.
Hey Dave, How skinny will
Hey Dave,
How skinny will these posts get in this format if we keep replying to each other?
"Elizabeth May" + "Vison Green 2010"
Hmm...using your Google thing from above there, I put in "Elizabeth May" + "Vision Green 2010", and looks to me like most of what came up...were links to my own blog. And that's truly abysmal.
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=%22Elizabeth+May%22+%2B+%22Vision+Green+2010%22&aq=f&aqi=&oq=
"Green Party" + "Vision Green 2010" is little better.
Now...what's the skinny on all of this?
EKOS also had the GPC at 11% days before to Oct 2008 vote
http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2008/10/seat-projection-october-6-2008/
But we received 6.8% in the vote, not 11%.
EKOS shows the GP at 11.2% in their last ten polls. So, if a vote were held tomorrow, based on 2008, I predict we would get .. 6.9% :-)
Re: John
John you linked to seat projections not poll also I linked to October 2009 polls not 2008 polls in case you're confused. The seat projection included other for independants but the poll it was based on probably didn't.
In other words we were at 11% without other. We are now at 11% with other which could be the difference between your predication of 6.9% and 9.0%
Also in case anyone was wondering "gleeful about negative poll results" and John Ogilvie go hand-in-hand.
~ Dave Bagler
Two words, Dave
Scroll. Down.
Voting intentions poll is on the same page.
I'm not gleeful about anything - I just wanted to pop the balloon that 11% in EKOS polls shows any kind of progress.
John, did you miss the point
John, did you miss the point that there has been a recent change in methodology?
The change in methodology was the basis for this post. Did you actually read the post?
~ Dave Bagler
Could win more than two but...
Polls are useful analytical tools when used this way. You are absolutely correct that contrasting polls which share a common methodology, over time can provide real insights.
Seat projection models are always risky though. Because they look like scientific data, it's easy to lend too much credence to them. Campaigns happen on the ground, Riding by Riding, and oine street at a time. There is no way to credibly capture pertinent data like strength on the ground, the hiring of a strong campaign team, and the impact of the current local issues on the local electorate.
These types of media commissioned polls are basically done to provide fodder to daily news providers. The really meaty, and truly significant polling data centers on issues, and the factors that influence peoples voting intentions. Last years CBC commissioned polls are a good example of public polls that can actually help with decision making.
Re: Seat Projections
I would agree that seat projections don't mean much although again if the projection model is consisten and we go from 0 to 1 our support level must have changed so it is an indication of increased suport but ya it certainly doesn't mean you're well on your way to victory.
However if models say that we are in striking distance in BC or Ontario then I think it serves as a pretty good reason to redouble our efforts.
When encouraging people to donate time and dollars "because EKOS says we could win" just might be the thing gets people to take action.
~ Dave Bagler
Seat Projections ARE Useful
Seat Projections, in our case, are very useful, I think. Not because the polling tells much of a story. But because now, for the first time, it's being reported that the Greens are projected to win a seat. If this continues, it will start to change our narrative, and people will begin to think we are electable.
For no other reason, that's why I'm optimistic about these EKOS polls. EKOS says a Green gets elected. Go tell everyone!
Dave, great work on doing
Dave, great work on doing some regression analysis on the polling. It does make for a better argument than posting a single poll result. I would argue against adding the other directly to the GPC number as you did in your table 2 unless EKOS specifically stated that their methodology before Jan 14th was to lump the others into the GPC vote. Clarification from EKOS on that other number would help your analysis.
As always, the problems with all polls for the Greens is that we need to be able to deliver on the polling intentions. Nik Nanos pointed out, at the GPC convention in 2006, that the GPC wasn't very good at converting polling numbers into actual votes. Hopefully, the last few years since the Nanos observation has meant the party brass has put together a game plan for changing that trend.
BTW, which blogs are you referring to that gleefully post negative results?
Thank you sir.
Actually its bloggers and commentors who gleefully post negative results mostly commentors but RoG has been guilty of it in the past even if it is RoG authors that aren't you.
Their methodology wasn't to lump the others into the GPC vote but they mentioned the GPC being a parking lot for protest votes. Which why I stressed that the analysis is very rough. Rather regularly the point is made in the media that the GPC is a between election 'other' for many voters.
~ Dave Bagler
Just be direct
If you mean RoG, then just say RoG. If you specifically mean John's posts at RoG, then just say that (not a lot of authors outside of the two of us). This beating around the bush is a little silly. Of course, you may have to back up such claims with a link....
Re: Just be direct
Well to be fair I can't always remember who the author of each RoG post I read is. I generally check at the time but a couple months later I probably wont remember.
However I don't think there is anything wrong with saying John is negative. He compared Elizabeth May to the H1N1 virus.
~ Dave Bagler
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