A Tale of Two Polls

Our first MP? Photo by DEDDEDA
Two SGI polls were published today (I wrote this a few days ago :P). The first was commissioned by www.greenpartystrategy.com and can be found here. The second was commissioned by the Green Party of Canada was covered by the Times Colonist.
| GPC | GPS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Lunn | 34% | 30.4% | |
| May | 32% | 28.3% | |
| Lib | 17% | 26.4% | |
| NDP | 17% | 14.9% |
Two polls released on the same day but the actual surveys were conducted in different points in August. The poll commissioned by GPS was conducted between August 5th and 10th. The Green Party of Canada poll was conducted between August 21st and 25th.
So that’s two snap shots around half a month apart that give very similar results with the exception of liberal support. This might have something to do with what seems like the major difference in the methodology that produces these results. The GPC poll results are of those who are definitely voting (76%) and do not include the other 24% (including 15% of those who are probably voting). The Liberal support in the GPS poll (37.0%) compared to the Liberal candidate, Rene Hetherington’s support (26.4%) is nearly 10% higher. So the 10% difference in Liberal support between the two polls might be because of people “probably voting†Liberal but not “definitely voting†for Rene Hetherington.
A statistical tie is great news. Now it’s time to kick the phone canvassing campaign in to overdrive and make sure that we make this happen. The Green Party of Canada’s best chance to elect an MP is clearly Elizabeth in SGI, it’s our responsibility as GPC members to make that happen!